IB Economics HL SL Paper 1 2 3 Topic Prediction IBDP May 2026

IB ECONOMICS — PAPER 1 ESSAY THEME FREQUENCY MATRIX \| May 2022–2025 \| Free Preview: Unit 2 Microeconomics
Free preview: Unit 2 Micro · Macro & Global Economy locked below · Choose 1 of 3 questions. Part (a) explain [10 marks] + part (b) evaluate [15 marks]
#	Unit	Essay Theme / Topic	M22	M23	M24	M25	Freq	Part (a) focus	Part (b) evaluate	May 2026
UNIT 2: MICROECONOMICS (most tested in Paper 1)
1	Micro	Market failure — externalities + evaluate government policy (SL & HL)	✔	✔	✔	✔	4	Draw externality diagram + explain welfare loss	Evaluate: carbon tax vs cap-and-trade vs regulation	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ CERTAIN
2	Micro	PED — explain concept + evaluate for indirect tax policy (SL & HL)	✔	✔	—	✔	3	Explain PED formula + diagram showing elastic/inelastic	Evaluate: should government tax inelastic goods?	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
3	Micro	Market structures — monopoly vs perfect competition + evaluate welfare HL only	✔	—	✔	✔	3	Draw monopoly diagram: profit, DWL, compare to PC	Evaluate: is monopoly always harmful to society?	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ HL
4	Micro	Government intervention — subsidies or price controls + evaluate (SL & HL)	—	✔	✔	—	2	Draw subsidy / price ceiling diagram	Evaluate: do subsidies achieve their objectives?	⭐⭐⭐⭐
5	Micro	Behavioural economics — bounded rationality + evaluate nudge theory HL only	—	✔	—	—	1	Explain cognitive biases, anchoring, bounded rationality	Evaluate: nudge theory vs taxes/regulation	⭐⭐⭐ SURPRISE HL

📝

Paper 1 — Extended Essay (Full Macro & Global)

Essay theme frequency — Macroeconomics & Global Economy

#	Unit	Essay Theme / Topic	M22	M23	M24	M25	Freq	Part (a) focus	Part (b) evaluate	May 2026
UNIT 3: MACROECONOMICS
6	Macro	Fiscal policy — explain expansionary policy + evaluate effectiveness (SL & HL)	✔	✔	✔	✔	4	Draw AD/AS shift from fiscal expansion	Evaluate: crowding out, time lags, national debt, RWE	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ CERTAIN
7	Macro	Monetary policy — explain central bank tools + evaluate limitations (SL & HL)	✔	—	✔	✔	3	Explain interest rate mechanism + AD shift diagram	Evaluate: time lags, liquidity trap, inflation targeting	⭐⭐⭐⭐
8	Macro	Unemployment — explain types + evaluate supply-side policies (SL & HL)	—	✔	✔	—	2	Explain cyclical vs structural unemployment diagrams	Evaluate: education/training, labour market reform, RWE	⭐⭐⭐⭐
9	Macro	Income inequality — Lorenz curve/Gini + evaluate policies (SL & HL)	✔	—	✔	✔	3	Draw Lorenz curve, explain Gini coefficient	Evaluate: progressive tax, transfers, minimum wage	⭐⭐⭐⭐
10	Macro	Phillips curve — inflation-unemployment trade-off + evaluate HL only	✔	—	✔	—	2	Draw SRPC + LRPC at NAIRU, explain trade-off	Evaluate: monetarist vs Keynesian view of NAIRU	⭐⭐⭐⭐ HL
UNIT 4: THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
11	Global	Free trade vs protectionism — comparative advantage + evaluate (SL & HL)	✔	✔	✔	✔	4	Explain comparative advantage with numerical example	Evaluate: infant industry, retaliation, employment vs efficiency	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ CERTAIN
12	Global	Exchange rates — explain depreciation + evaluate effect on trade (SL & HL)	✔	—	✔	✔	3	Draw Forex diagram + explain depreciation mechanism	Evaluate: M-L condition, J-curve, inflation risk (HL)	⭐⭐⭐⭐
13	Global	Development — barriers + evaluate effectiveness of aid (SL & HL)	—	✔	✔	—	2	Explain poverty trap / institutional barriers diagram	Evaluate: tied vs untied aid, dependency, RWE	⭐⭐⭐
14	Global	Sustainable development — trade-off with growth + evaluate policy (SL & HL)	—	✔	—	✔	2	Explain SDGs and conflict with growth objectives	Evaluate: carbon pricing, international agreements, RWE	⭐⭐⭐⭐

Pre-planned essay frameworks — top 3 themes

🌍 Theme 1: Externalities + Government Policy — Part (b) framework

Define the market failure: negative externality → MSC > MPC → overproduction → welfare loss triangle on diagram
Policy 1 — Carbon/Pigouvian tax: internalises externality, raises government revenue. ✔ Corrects price signal. ✗ Hard to set optimal rate, regressive burden on low income. RWE: UK sugar tax, EU carbon price
Policy 2 — Cap and trade: sets quantity limit, market finds price. ✔ Certainty on emissions. ✗ Price volatility, lobbying. RWE: EU ETS
Policy 3 — Regulation: direct standards. ✔ Predictable outcomes. ✗ Costly to enforce, no incentive to reduce below limit
Conclusion: Best policy depends on country context — carbon tax for high-income countries with admin capacity. Regulation for developing countries

📈 Theme 2: Fiscal Policy Effectiveness — Part (b) framework

Define fiscal policy: government use of taxation and spending to influence AD. Expansionary = ↑G or ↓T → AD shifts right on AD/AS diagram
FOR — multiplier effect: initial injection multiplied through economy via circular flow. MPC determines size. RWE: US CARES Act 2020, India MNREGA
AGAINST — crowding out (HL): government borrowing raises interest rates → private investment falls → AD increase smaller than expected
AGAINST — time lags: recognition lag + implementation lag + impact lag = policy may arrive after recession has ended
AGAINST — national debt: persistent deficits raise debt/GDP → future austerity. RWE: Greece 2010 sovereign debt crisis
Conclusion: Most effective in severe downturns (liquidity trap). Less effective in supply-side recessions. Depends on MPC and multiplier size

🌐 Theme 3: Free Trade vs Protectionism — Part (b) framework

Case for free trade: comparative advantage → specialisation → allocative efficiency → lower prices. RWE: ASEAN free trade growth, India IT exports
FOR protectionism — infant industry: temporary protection to achieve economies of scale. RWE: South Korea’s steel sector (1960s)
FOR protectionism — strategic industries: national security, food security. RWE: EU Common Agricultural Policy
AGAINST protectionism: consumer surplus loss, higher prices, retaliation risk, inefficiency. RWE: US-China trade war tariff costs to US consumers
Conclusion: Free trade optimal in long run. Temporary infant industry argument has merit. WTO rules limit retaliatory spirals

Essential real-world examples to prepare

Externalities: EU ETS, UK sugar tax, India plastic ban, China coal subsidies
Inequality: Scandinavia low Gini, USA vs Germany income distribution
Fiscal policy: US CARES Act, UK furlough scheme, India MNREGA
Trade: US-China tariffs, ASEAN FTA, Brexit trade effects
Development: Bangladesh microfinance (Grameen), Rwanda growth, China’s rise
Exchange rates: India rupee depreciation 2022, Japan yen 2023
Monetary policy: Fed rate hike cycle 2022–24, ECB quantitative easing

Common part (b) mistakes that cost marks

❌ One-sided argument — only pros OR only cons = max band 3
❌ No real-world examples = cannot reach band 4 or 5
❌ No conclusion = max band 3
❌ Vague conclusion (“it depends”) without specifying conditions/criteria
❌ Using theory without linking to the specific question context
❌ No diagram in part (a) = max 7/10
❌ Describing diagram without explaining the economic significance

📊

Paper 2 — Data Response

📋 SL vs HL — Paper 2 differences (from official IB guide) Structure: Identical for SL and HL — same 7-part format, same 40 marks, same 1 hr 45 min duration. The text/data and questions may even be the same at both levels. | Key difference: SL questions exclude HL extension topics. HL questions may include HL-only content (market structures depth, Marshall-Lerner, TOT calculations, behavioural economics, Phillips curve, crowding out, etc.). | Weighting: 40% of SL final grade vs 30% of HL final grade.

Paper 2 — 7 parts breakdown

Part (a)(i)(ii): Define 2 terms from stimulus [2+2 = 4 marks]
Part (b)(i)(ii): Calculate or identify from data [5 marks total]
Part (c): Draw a diagram + brief explanation [4 marks]
Part (d): Explain using diagram + data [4 marks]
Part (e): Explain economic concept in context [4 marks]
Part (f): Explain with diagram [4 marks]
Part (g): Evaluate/discuss [15 marks] — same as Paper 1 part (b)

Paper 2 strategy tips

Read the stimulus article carefully — link every answer to data in the text
Part (g) = 15 marks — spend at least 18–20 minutes on this
Part (b) calculations: always show full working, include units
Diagrams in (c), (d), (f): label both axes, all curves, equilibrium points
Use data from the stimulus in every answer where possible
HL: watch for extension content in parts (d)–(f): TOT, M-L, Phillips curve, market structures

Paper 2 topic frequency — May 2022–2025

#	Unit	Topic / Sub-topic	M22 TZ1	M22 ★TZ2	M23 TZ1	M23 ★TZ2	M24 TZ1	M24 ★TZ2	HL?	May 2026
IB ECONOMICS — PAPER 2 TOPIC FREQUENCY MATRIX \| May 2022–2025 \| TZ1 & TZ2 ★India
Same structure SL & HL — HL rows show HL-extension content. ★India = TZ2. Green cells = appeared in TZ2. SL: HL-only rows greyed.
UNIT 2: MICROECONOMICS — appears in BOTH SL and HL Paper 2
2.1	Demand & Supply	Market equilibrium, shifts, price mechanism — diagram	✔	✔	✔	✔	✔	✔	SL&HL	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
2.5	Elasticity	PED — calculate, interpret, link to tax incidence	✔	✔	✔	—	✔	✔	SL&HL	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
2.7	Govt — Indirect Tax	Tax diagram, consumer/producer burden, DWL — draw & calculate	✔	✔	✔	✔	—	✔	SL&HL	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
2.8	Externalities	Negative/positive externalities — diagram + evaluate policy	✔	✔	✔	✔	✔	✔	SL&HL	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ CERTAIN
2.11	Market Structures (HL)	Monopoly diagram — profit, DWL, allocative inefficiency HL only	✔	—	✔	✔	—	✔	HL	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ HL
2.11b	Costs & Revenues (HL)	MC, ATC, AVC — draw, calculate, profit maximisation at MC=MR HL only	✔	✔	—	✔	✔	—	HL	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ HL
UNIT 3: MACROECONOMICS — appears in BOTH SL and HL Paper 2
3.2	AD/AS Model	AD/AS equilibrium, policy shifts — draw & explain	✔	✔	✔	✔	✔	✔	SL&HL	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ CERTAIN
3.3	Inflation	CPI calculation, demand-pull vs cost-push — calculate & diagram	✔	—	✔	✔	—	✔	SL&HL	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
3.4	Inequality & Poverty	Lorenz curve — draw, calculate Gini, interpret change	✔	✔	—	✔	✔	—	SL&HL	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
3.5	Fiscal Policy	Expansionary/contractionary policy — AD/AS diagram + evaluate	✔	✔	✔	—	✔	✔	SL&HL	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
3.5b	Fiscal Policy (HL)	Keynesian multiplier — calculate, crowding out diagram HL only	✔	✔	—	✔	✔	—	HL	⭐⭐⭐⭐ HL
3.3b	Phillips Curve (HL)	SRPC + LRPC at NAIRU — draw, explain trade-off HL only	✔	—	✔	—	✔	✔	HL	⭐⭐⭐⭐ HL
UNIT 4: GLOBAL ECONOMY — appears in BOTH SL and HL Paper 2
4.2	Protectionism	Tariff diagram — consumer surplus loss, DWL, govt revenue — draw & evaluate	✔	✔	—	✔	✔	—	SL&HL	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
4.5	Exchange Rates	Floating exchange rate diagram — appreciation/depreciation + effects on economy	✔	✔	✔	✔	✔	✔	SL&HL	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ CERTAIN
4.6	Balance of Payments	Current account — define components, calculate balance, identify causes	✔	—	✔	✔	—	✔	SL&HL	⭐⭐⭐⭐
4.1b	Comparative Advantage (HL)	Calculate opportunity cost, identify CA, gains from trade — PPC diagram HL only	✔	✔	—	✔	✔	—	HL	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ HL
4.6b	Marshall-Lerner & J-curve (HL)	Conditions for depreciation to improve CA + draw J-curve HL only	✔	—	✔	✔	—	✔	HL	⭐⭐⭐⭐ HL
4.7	Sustainable Dev.	SDGs — define, trade-off with growth, evaluate policy	—	✔	✔	—	✔	✔	SL&HL	⭐⭐⭐⭐
4.10	Development Strategies	Aid, FDI, microfinance, trade — evaluate effectiveness	—	✔	✔	—	✔	✔	SL&HL	⭐⭐⭐⭐

★ TZ2 = India, UK, UAE, Singapore, Africa timezone | HL-only rows greyed in SL view | Based on IB Economics HL Subject Guide, First Assessment 2022

🔒

Paper 3 is HL only

Standard Level (SL) students do not sit Paper 3. You only have Paper 1 and Paper 2. Switch to HL to see Paper 3 content.

🔬

Paper 3 — Policy Paper (HL Only)

What Paper 3 tests

Quantitative calculations using provided data tables
Definitions of economic terms in context of the scenario
Drawing diagrams that reflect the scenario data
Explanation of economic concepts with reference to stimulus
Part (b): Recommend a specific government policy with justified argument
All HL extension topics can appear — no HL topic is safe to skip

Part (b) structure — 10 marks

State the policy specifically — name the exact tool
Explain the mechanism — how does it work in theory?
Link to the scenario data — reference numbers from stimulus
Evaluate one alternative — why not this other policy?
Acknowledge one limitation — time lag, side effect, constraint
Clear justified conclusion — why your recommendation is best here

Paper 3 quantitative skills checklist

📐
GDP / GNI calculation (nominal and real)Expenditure approach: C+I+G+(X−M). Calculate growth rate. Real GDP using price deflator. GNI = GDP + net factor income.
Every sitting
📐
Consumer Price Index (CPI) & inflation rateCPI = (cost of basket current year / base year) × 100. Inflation rate = (CPI₂ − CPI₁) / CPI₁ × 100. HL: weighted price index.
Every sitting
📐
Price Elasticity of Demand (PED)PED = % ΔQd / % ΔP. Interpret elastic vs inelastic. Calculate change in total revenue. Link to tax policy decisions.
Very frequent
📐
Current Account BalanceCalculate trade in goods + services + income + current transfers. Identify surplus/deficit. Express as % of GDP.
Very frequent
📐
Lorenz curve / Gini coefficientGini = Area A / (Area A + Area B). Higher Gini = more inequality. Read from quintile data table. Interpret change over time.
Very frequent
📐
Unemployment rateUnemployment rate = (unemployed / labour force) × 100. Distinguish labour force from total population. Calculate change.
Frequent
📐
Keynesian multiplier (HL)Multiplier = 1/(1−MPC) or 1/MPS. Calculate change in national income from initial injection (investment, G, exports).
Frequent — HL
📐
Exchange rate calculationsCalculate new export/import prices after depreciation. Apply Marshall-Lerner: |PED exports| + |PED imports| > 1 for improvement.
Frequent — HL
📐
Indirect tax burden calculationTax revenue = tax per unit × Q sold. Consumer burden = (Pc − Pe) × Q. Producer burden = (Pe − Pp) × Q. DWL triangle area.
Frequent
📐
Government budget / national debtBudget deficit = G − T. Debt/GDP ratio. Distinguish annual deficit from total debt stock. Real interest rate = nominal − inflation.
Medium
📐
Profit / revenue / cost calculations (HL)TR = P × Q. TC = FC + VC. Profit = TR − TC. AR = TR/Q. Calculate abnormal profit rectangle on diagram.
Medium — HL
📐
Comparative advantage (HL)Calculate opportunity cost ratios for two countries. Identify who has CA in which good. Calculate gains from specialisation and trade.
Medium — HL

Policy scenario frequency — what gets asked in Paper 3

#	Area	Policy Scenario / Context	M22	M23	M24	M25	May 2026
IB ECONOMICS HL — PAPER 3 POLICY SCENARIO FREQUENCY \| May 2022–2025
Part (a) = quantitative + definitions + diagrams [20 marks each Q] \| Part (b) = policy recommendation [10 marks each Q] \| Both questions compulsory \| Calculator allowed
MACROECONOMIC POLICY SCENARIOS
M1	Macro	Country facing rising inflation — recommend monetary or fiscal policy to reduce inflation	✔	✔	✔	✔	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ CERTAIN
M2	Macro	High unemployment — recommend policy mix (demand-side + supply-side) with multiplier calculation	✔	—	✔	✔	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
M3	Macro	Recession — evaluate expansionary fiscal policy, calculate multiplier effect on GDP	✔	✔	—	✔	⭐⭐⭐⭐
M4	Macro	High income inequality — calculate Gini from Lorenz table + recommend redistribution policy	—	✔	✔	—	⭐⭐⭐⭐
INTERNATIONAL / GLOBAL ECONOMY POLICY SCENARIOS
G1	Global	Current account deficit — calculate balance, identify causes, recommend exchange rate or expenditure policy	✔	✔	✔	✔	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ CERTAIN
G2	Global	Exchange rate depreciation — calculate trade price effects, apply Marshall-Lerner, J-curve diagram	✔	✔	—	✔	⭐⭐⭐⭐ HL
G3	Global	Developing country — recommend sustainable development strategy, evaluate aid vs trade vs FDI	—	✔	✔	—	⭐⭐⭐
MICROECONOMIC POLICY SCENARIOS
Mi1	Micro	Negative externality — calculate welfare loss, recommend optimal Pigouvian tax rate from diagram	✔	✔	✔	✔	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ CERTAIN
Mi2	Micro	Monopoly — calculate profit and deadweight loss, recommend regulation policy	✔	—	✔	✔	⭐⭐⭐⭐ HL

🏛️ Universal part (b) policy recommendation framework — works for ANY scenario

Identify the economic problem precisely — use data from stimulus (“Country X’s inflation rate of 8.2% in Table 1 indicates demand-pull inflation…”)
State your recommended policy specifically — name the tool (“I recommend contractionary monetary policy — raising the central bank’s base interest rate by 200 basis points”)
Explain the transmission mechanism — how does it change behaviour and achieve the objective? Draw diagram if asked
Link explicitly to scenario data — reference numbers, country context, time period from the stimulus material
Evaluate one alternative and explain why not — e.g. “Although fiscal policy could also reduce inflation, time lags make it less appropriate given…”
Acknowledge one key limitation — time lag, distributional impact, or conflict with another objective
Clear, justified conclusion — restate recommendation and justify given the specific context of this country/scenario

Want expert IB Economics tutoring?

Sev7n has 17 years of IB Economics teaching experience at both HL and SL.

Book a FREE Demo Class →

📞 Request a Call Back

Thank You!

Essay theme frequency — Macroeconomics & Global Economy

Pre-planned essay frameworks — top 3 themes

🌍 Theme 1: Externalities + Government Policy — Part (b) framework

📈 Theme 2: Fiscal Policy Effectiveness — Part (b) framework

🌐 Theme 3: Free Trade vs Protectionism — Part (b) framework

Essential real-world examples to prepare

Common part (b) mistakes that cost marks

Paper 2 — 7 parts breakdown

Paper 2 strategy tips

Paper 2 topic frequency — May 2022–2025

Paper 3 is HL only

What Paper 3 tests

Part (b) structure — 10 marks

Paper 3 quantitative skills checklist

Policy scenario frequency — what gets asked in Paper 3

🏛️ Universal part (b) policy recommendation framework — works for ANY scenario

About This Resource

Key differences: HL vs SL

IB Economics HL & SLComplete Exam Prediction Guide

📞 Request a Call Back

Thank You!

What Paper 1 tests

How part (b) marks are awarded

Paper 1 essay theme frequency — Microeconomics (Unit 2)

🔒 Unlock all 3 papers — Macro & Global Economy + Paper 2 (Data Response) + Paper 3 (HL Policy)

Unlock Full Topic Predictions

Access Granted!

Essay theme frequency — Macroeconomics & Global Economy

Pre-planned essay frameworks — top 3 themes

🌍 Theme 1: Externalities + Government Policy — Part (b) framework

📈 Theme 2: Fiscal Policy Effectiveness — Part (b) framework

🌐 Theme 3: Free Trade vs Protectionism — Part (b) framework

Essential real-world examples to prepare

Common part (b) mistakes that cost marks

Paper 2 — 7 parts breakdown

Paper 2 strategy tips

Paper 2 topic frequency — May 2022–2025

Paper 3 is HL only

What Paper 3 tests

Part (b) structure — 10 marks

Paper 3 quantitative skills checklist

Policy scenario frequency — what gets asked in Paper 3

🏛️ Universal part (b) policy recommendation framework — works for ANY scenario

About This Resource

Key differences: HL vs SL

Want expert IB Economics tutoring?

IB Economics HL & SL
Complete Exam Prediction Guide