IB ESS HL SL Paper 2 Topic Prediction IBDP May 2026

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Paper 2 — Topics 1 & 2 (Free Preview)

Duration: 2 hours (SL & HL) | Marks: 65 | Weighting: 50% | Section A: short answer [25 marks] | Section B: choose 2 of 4 essays × 20 marks

⚠ New 2026 syllabus — no past papers exist for this format yet. The frequency analysis below is based on old SL Paper 2 topic patterns (2019–2024) mapped to new 2026 topic numbers. New topics (Urban Systems, HL Lenses) have no past paper data — they are flagged as NEW and predicted as very likely for the first sitting.

Paper 2 topic frequency — Topics 1 (Foundations) & 2 (Ecology) preview

#	Topic	Sub-topic / Concept	M19	M20	M21	M22	M23	M24	Freq	HL Lens?	May 2026
IB ESS — PAPER 2 TOPIC FREQUENCY MATRIX (Old SL May 2019–2024 → Mapped to New 2026 Syllabus)
Free preview: Topic 1 (Foundations) + Topic 2 (Ecology start) · Topics 3–7 + HL Lenses locked below
⚠ May 2026 = FIRST sitting of new syllabus. All NEW topics (flagged below) are predicted HIGH for first sitting. HL Lenses are CERTAIN for HL students.
TOPIC 1: FOUNDATIONS — Perspectives, Systems & Sustainability
1.1	Foundations	Systems thinking — transfers, transformations, feedback loops, system diagrams	✔	✔	✔	—	✔	✔	5	SL&HL	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
1.2	Foundations	Environmental value systems (EVS) — ecocentric, anthropocentric, technocentric	✔	—	✔	✔	—	✔	4	HL Ethics	⭐⭐⭐⭐
1.3	Foundations	Sustainability — natural capital, ecological footprint, carrying capacity	✔	✔	—	✔	✔	—	4	SL&HL	⭐⭐⭐⭐
TOPIC 2: ECOLOGY — Ecosystems & Ecological Processes
2.1	Ecology	Ecosystems — food chains/webs, trophic levels, energy flow, biomass pyramids	✔	✔	✔	✔	✔	✔	6	SL&HL	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ CERTAIN
2.2	Ecology	Energy flow — NPP, GPP, trophic efficiency — calculate & explain	✔	✔	—	✔	✔	—	4	SL&HL	⭐⭐⭐⭐

🔒 Unlock Topics 3–7 + HL Lenses + Paper 1 Case Study Skills

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Paper 1 — Case Study

Duration: 2 hours (HL) / 1 hour (SL) | Marks: 70 (HL) / 35 (SL) | Weighting: 30% (HL) / 25% (SL) | A pre-released case study about a specific geographic area. Questions test application of all syllabus topics to that context.

⚠ Paper 1 cannot be predicted by topic — it is based on a pre-released case study of a specific place/ecosystem which changes every year. The skills you practise are more important than any topic prediction. Focus on: reading data, drawing system diagrams, applying ESS concepts to unfamiliar contexts, evaluating stakeholder perspectives.

Paper 1 structure (New 2026)

SL: 1 hour | 35 marks | 3 questions (4 + 7 + 9 marks each) per question, choose 2 of 3
HL: 2 hours | 70 marks | same structure but 6 questions (choose 2 of 3 per section, 2 sections)
Case study pre-released — read it before the exam
Questions require data analysis + application of ESS knowledge
All 7 topics could appear — depends on the case study context
Calculator permitted

Paper 1 skills to practise

Read data: graphs, tables, maps, pie charts — extract values accurately
Draw diagrams: system diagrams, food webs, flow charts from data
Apply concepts: use ESS terminology to describe what data shows
Evaluate perspectives: consider different stakeholders’ viewpoints
Calculate: Simpson’s index, trophic efficiency, % change from data
HL: apply HL Lens perspectives (Law/Economics/Ethics) to case study questions

🌿 What topics have appeared in past Paper 1 case studies? Past case studies have included: coral reef ecosystems, tropical deforestation, river systems, coastal development, urban areas, agriculture in developing nations, fishing communities, dam construction. Any biome or environmental challenge can appear. Focus on understanding how to apply concepts, not predicting the location.

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Paper 2 — Short Answer & Essays (Full Topics 3–7 + HL Lenses)

Paper 2 topic frequency — Topics 3–7 + HL Lenses

#	Topic	Sub-topic / Concept	M19	M20	M21	M22	M23	M24	Freq	HL Lens?	May 2026
TOPIC 2: ECOLOGY (continued)
2.3	Ecology	Nutrient cycles — carbon cycle, nitrogen cycle — draw system diagram + human impact	✔	—	✔	✔	—	✔	4	SL&HL	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
2.4	Ecology	Population ecology — S-curve, J-curve, carrying capacity, limiting factors	✔	✔	✔	—	✔	✔	5	SL&HL	⭐⭐⭐⭐
2.5	Ecology	Succession — primary, secondary; climax community; deflected succession	—	✔	✔	—	✔	—	3	SL&HL	⭐⭐⭐
2.6	Ecology	Biomes — distribution, climate, characteristics, NPP comparison	✔	—	✔	✔	—	✔	4	SL&HL	⭐⭐⭐⭐
2.7	Ecology	Biogeochemical cycles (detailed) — nitrogen cycle in full, phosphorus cycle HL only	—	—	—	—	—	—	0	HL only	NEW HL — CERTAIN
TOPIC 3: BIODIVERSITY & CONSERVATION
3.1	Biodiversity	Measuring biodiversity — species richness, Simpson’s diversity index — calculate	✔	—	✔	—	✔	—	3	SL&HL	⭐⭐⭐⭐
3.2	Biodiversity	Threats to biodiversity — habitat loss, invasive species, climate change, overexploitation	✔	✔	✔	✔	✔	✔	6	SL&HL	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ CERTAIN
3.3	Biodiversity	Conservation strategies — in-situ vs ex-situ, protected areas, CITES, rewilding	✔	—	✔	✔	—	✔	4	HL Law+Ethics	⭐⭐⭐⭐
3.4	Biodiversity	Species extinction — causes, consequences, keystone species, IUCN Red List	✔	✔	—	✔	✔	—	4	SL&HL	⭐⭐⭐⭐
TOPIC 4: WATER SYSTEMS & AQUATIC FOOD PRODUCTION
4.1	Water	Hydrological cycle — stores, flows, human impacts — draw & explain	✔	✔	—	✔	—	✔	4	SL&HL	⭐⭐⭐⭐
4.2	Water	Water pollution — eutrophication, BOD, sewage, agricultural runoff	✔	—	✔	✔	✔	—	4	SL&HL	⭐⭐⭐⭐
4.4	Water	Aquatic food production — fishing methods, aquaculture, sustainable fisheries management	✔	✔	—	—	✔	✔	4	HL Law+Econ	⭐⭐⭐⭐
TOPIC 5: LAND SYSTEMS & TERRESTRIAL FOOD PRODUCTION
5.2	Food Production	Food production systems — compare intensive vs organic vs sustainable agriculture	✔	✔	✔	✔	✔	✔	6	HL Econ+Ethics	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ CERTAIN
5.3	Land / Soil	Land degradation — desertification, deforestation, salinisation, overgrazing	✔	—	✔	—	✔	✔	4	SL&HL	⭐⭐⭐⭐
5.4	Food Security	Food security — green revolution, GMOs, food miles, fair trade — evaluate	—	✔	✔	—	✔	—	3	HL Econ+Ethics	⭐⭐⭐⭐
TOPIC 6: ATMOSPHERE & CLIMATE CHANGE
6.1	Atmosphere	Atmospheric systems — greenhouse effect, albedo, energy balance — draw & explain	✔	✔	✔	✔	✔	✔	6	SL&HL	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ CERTAIN
6.2	Climate Change	Climate change — causes, evidence, feedback loops, consequences — evaluate responses	✔	✔	✔	✔	✔	✔	6	HL Law+Econ	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ CERTAIN
6.5	Energy	Energy production — fossil fuels vs renewables vs nuclear — evaluate sustainability	✔	✔	✔	✔	—	✔	5	HL Econ+Ethics	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
6.4	Air Pollution (HL)	Photochemical smog, acid rain — formation, impacts, management HL only	✔	—	✔	—	✔	—	3	HL only	⭐⭐⭐⭐ HL
TOPIC 7: NATURAL RESOURCES, HUMAN POPULATIONS & URBAN SYSTEMS
7.1	Human Population	Human population — DTM, age-sex pyramids, ecological footprint, population policies	✔	✔	✔	—	✔	✔	5	SL&HL	⭐⭐⭐⭐
7.4	Urban Systems	Urbanisation, urban heat island, green infrastructure, smart cities — NEW 2026	—	—	—	—	—	—	0	SL&HL	⭐⭐⭐ NEW — HIGH
7.5	Env. Policy	International agreements — SDGs, IPCC, Paris Agreement, MEAs — evaluate	✔	✔	—	✔	✔	—	4	HL Law+Econ	⭐⭐⭐⭐
HL ONLY — THREE LENSES (NEW 2026): Environmental Law · Environmental Economics · Environmental Ethics
HL.1	Env. Law (HL)	International environmental law — apply Paris, CBD, CITES, Ramsar to evaluate governance HL only	—	—	—	—	—	—	0	HL only	NEW HL — CERTAIN
HL.2	Env. Economics (HL)	Ecosystem service valuation, natural capital, carbon markets, Polluter Pays HL only	—	—	—	—	—	—	0	HL only	NEW HL — CERTAIN
HL.3	Env. Ethics (HL)	Ecocentrism, deep ecology, rights of nature, intrinsic value, duties to future generations HL only	—	—	—	—	—	—	0	HL only	NEW HL — CERTAIN

★ ESS has no timezone split — one global exam | HL rows greyed in SL view | Based on IB ESS past papers (old SL syllabus 2019–2024) + IB ESS Subject Guide 2026

🔬 HL Students — The Three Lenses are CERTAIN to appear in May 2026
These are brand new HL-only content. Every HL Section B essay should incorporate at least one Lens perspective. Environmental Law: apply treaty frameworks (Paris Agreement, CBD, CITES). Environmental Economics: use ecosystem service valuation, natural capital accounting, carbon markets. Environmental Ethics: evaluate from ecocentric, anthropocentric or deep ecology perspectives. Learn all three — they will be tested in the first HL sitting.

Top 5 most likely Paper 2 essay topics for May 2026

🔴 Virtually certain — prepare first

Climate change — causes, evidence, feedback loops, mitigation vs adaptation. Appeared in 6/6 years. No year has been without it.
Ecosystems & food webs — energy flow, trophic efficiency. Core content tested every single year.
Biodiversity threats — habitat loss, invasive species, extinction. 6/6 years frequency.
Food production systems — intensive vs sustainable. 6/6 years. Always an essay option.
Atmospheric systems — greenhouse effect, energy balance. 6/6 years.

🔬 HL students — additionally prepare

HL Env. Law Lens — apply Paris Agreement / CBD / CITES to an essay. First sitting = guaranteed.
HL Env. Economics Lens — ecosystem service valuation, carbon markets. First sitting = guaranteed.
HL Env. Ethics Lens — ecocentrism, rights of nature, deep ecology. First sitting = guaranteed.
Nitrogen cycle in detail — new HL-only biogeochemical content. Draw full N-cycle diagram.
Photochemical smog — moved from SL to HL-only in 2026. Must know for HL.

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Paper 1 structure (New 2026)

Paper 1 skills to practise

Paper 2 topic frequency — Topics 3–7 + HL Lenses

Top 5 most likely Paper 2 essay topics for May 2026

🔴 Virtually certain — prepare first

🔬 HL students — additionally prepare

About This Resource

ESS HL vs SL — key differences

IB Environmental Systems & SocietiesHL & SL Complete Prediction Guide

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Paper 2 topic frequency — Topics 1 (Foundations) & 2 (Ecology) preview

🔒 Unlock Topics 3–7 + HL Lenses + Paper 1 Case Study Skills

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Paper 1 structure (New 2026)

Paper 1 skills to practise

Paper 2 topic frequency — Topics 3–7 + HL Lenses

Top 5 most likely Paper 2 essay topics for May 2026

🔴 Virtually certain — prepare first

🔬 HL students — additionally prepare

About This Resource

ESS HL vs SL — key differences

Want expert IB ESS tutoring?

IB Environmental Systems & Societies
HL & SL Complete Prediction Guide